Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 October 2021 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 14 Oct 2021
- Respondents
- 1,329
- Method
- Telefonisch
- SPD28.0%±0
- CDU/CSU19.0%-1.0
- Grüne17.0%+1.0
- FDP13.0%±0
- AfD11.0%+1.0
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others7.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 1 Oct 2021.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 19.0%. 1,329 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Oct 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 1 Oct 2021, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 2.5 points lower and SPD 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.5average 21.5
- SPD +1.9average 26.1
- Grüne +1.6average 15.4
- Linke -0.9average 5.9
- FDP +0.5average 12.5
- AfD +0.3average 10.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- SPD190
- CDU/CSU129
- Grüne115
- FDP88
- AfD74
- Linke34
- SPD + CDU/CSU319 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + FDP393 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD379 of 630
- SPD + FDP + AfD352 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + Linke339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.