Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 October 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
12 to 14 Oct 2021
Respondents
1,329
Method
Telefonisch
  • SPD28.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU19.0%-1.0
  • Grüne17.0%+1.0
  • FDP13.0%±0
  • AfD11.0%+1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others7.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 1 Oct 2021.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 19.0%. 1,329 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Oct 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 1 Oct 2021, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 2.5 points lower and SPD 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.5average 21.5
  • SPD +1.9average 26.1
  • Grüne +1.6average 15.4
  • Linke -0.9average 5.9
  • FDP +0.5average 12.5
  • AfD +0.3average 10.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 190 seatsCDU/CSU: 129 seatsGrüne: 115 seatsFDP: 88 seatsAfD: 74 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD190
  • CDU/CSU129
  • Grüne115
  • FDP88
  • AfD74
  • Linke34
  • SPD + CDU/CSU319 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP393 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD379 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD352 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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