Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 1 October 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
28 to 30 Sep 2021
Respondents
1,249
Method
Telefonisch
  • SPD28.0%+3.0
  • CDU/CSU20.0%-3.0
  • Grüne16.0%-0.5
  • FDP13.0%+2.0
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%-1.0
  • Others8.0%+2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 Sep 2021.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 20.0%. 1,249 people were surveyed from 28 to 30 Sep 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 Sep 2021, SPD gains 3.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, FDP gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD 2.5 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Oct 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.5average 25.5
  • CDU/CSU -2.2average 22.2
  • FDP +1.5average 11.5
  • Linke -1.5average 6.5
  • AfD -1.0average 11.0
  • Grüne +0.5average 15.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

SPD: 192 seatsCDU/CSU: 137 seatsGrüne: 110 seatsFDP: 89 seatsAfD: 68 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • SPD192
  • CDU/CSU137
  • Grüne110
  • FDP89
  • AfD68
  • Linke34
  • SPD + CDU/CSU329 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP391 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD370 of 630
  • SPD + FDP + AfD349 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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