Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 16 July 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
13 to 15 Jul 2021
Respondents
1,224
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
  • Grüne20.0%-2.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • FDP10.0%±0
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke7.0%±0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 25 Jun 2021.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,224 people were surveyed from 13 to 15 Jul 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 25 Jun 2021, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.4average 28.6
  • FDP -1.4average 11.4
  • SPD -1.0average 16.0
  • Grüne +0.3average 19.7
  • AfD -0.2average 10.2
  • Linke -0.2average 7.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 206 seatsGrüne: 137 seatsSPD: 103 seatsFDP: 68 seatsAfD: 68 seatsLinke: 48 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU206
  • Grüne137
  • SPD103
  • FDP68
  • AfD68
  • Linke48
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke357 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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