Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 January 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
12 to 14 Jan 2021
Respondents
1,262
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU37.0%±0
  • Grüne20.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke8.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Dec 2020.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,262 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Jan 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 10 Dec 2020, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has FDP 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP -1.6average 6.6
  • CDU/CSU +1.0average 36.0
  • Grüne +1.0average 19.0
  • AfD +0.6average 9.4
  • SPD -0.4average 15.4
  • Linke +0.1average 7.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 245 seatsGrüne: 133 seatsSPD: 100 seatsAfD: 66 seatsLinke: 53 seatsFDP: 33 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU245
  • Grüne133
  • SPD100
  • AfD66
  • Linke53
  • FDP33
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP331 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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