Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 18 October 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 17 Oct 2019
- Respondents
- 1,226
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU29.0%+2.0
- Grüne24.0%-3.0
- SPD14.0%+1.0
- AfD13.0%-1.0
- Linke8.0%+1.0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Sep 2019.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.0%. 1,226 people were surveyed from 15 to 17 Oct 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 27 Sep 2019, Grüne loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 1.8 points higher and FDP 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Oct 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.8average 22.2
- FDP -1.6average 7.6
- CDU/CSU +1.3average 27.7
- AfD -1.0average 14.0
- Linke +0.2average 7.8
- SPD -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU194
- Grüne161
- SPD94
- AfD87
- Linke54
- FDP40
- CDU/CSU + Grüne355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke342 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.