Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 July 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
16 to 18 Jul 2019
Respondents
1,290
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU28.0%+1.0
  • Grüne25.0%-1.0
  • SPD13.0%-1.0
  • AfD12.0%-1.0
  • FDP8.0%+1.0
  • Linke8.0%+1.0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Jun 2019.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 25.0%. 1,290 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Jul 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Jun 2019, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.7average 26.3
  • AfD -1.0average 13.0
  • SPD -0.4average 13.4
  • Linke -0.3average 8.3
  • Grüne +0.2average 24.8
  • FDP ±0average 8.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 188 seatsGrüne: 167 seatsSPD: 87 seatsAfD: 80 seatsFDP: 54 seatsLinke: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU188
  • Grüne167
  • SPD87
  • AfD80
  • FDP54
  • Linke54
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD355 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD334 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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