Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 July 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 18 Jul 2019
- Respondents
- 1,290
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU28.0%+1.0
- Grüne25.0%-1.0
- SPD13.0%-1.0
- AfD12.0%-1.0
- FDP8.0%+1.0
- Linke8.0%+1.0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Jun 2019.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 25.0%. 1,290 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Jul 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 21 Jun 2019, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +1.7average 26.3
- AfD -1.0average 13.0
- SPD -0.4average 13.4
- Linke -0.3average 8.3
- Grüne +0.2average 24.8
- FDP ±0average 8.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU188
- Grüne167
- SPD87
- AfD80
- FDP54
- Linke54
- CDU/CSU + Grüne355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD355 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.