Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 15 March 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
12 to 14 Mar 2019
Respondents
1,290
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%±0
  • Grüne19.0%-1.0
  • SPD16.0%+1.0
  • AfD12.0%-1.0
  • FDP8.0%+1.0
  • Linke8.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 22 Feb 2019.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,290 people were surveyed from 12 to 14 Mar 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 22 Feb 2019, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Mar 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -1.3average 13.3
  • Grüne +1.2average 17.8
  • SPD -0.7average 16.7
  • FDP -0.7average 8.7
  • Linke -0.7average 8.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 208 seatsGrüne: 127 seatsSPD: 107 seatsAfD: 80 seatsFDP: 54 seatsLinke: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU208
  • Grüne127
  • SPD107
  • AfD80
  • FDP54
  • Linke54
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD395 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke316 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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