Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 11 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 10 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 1,267
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
- Grüne21.0%+2.0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- AfD14.0%-1.0
- Linke9.0%±0
- FDP8.0%+1.0
- Others5.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 Dec 2018.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 21.0%. 1,267 people were surveyed from 8 to 10 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 14 Dec 2018, Grüne gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.4average 18.6
- SPD -1.3average 15.3
- FDP -0.8average 8.8
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 29.7
- AfD -0.3average 14.3
- Linke -0.2average 9.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU192
- Grüne139
- SPD93
- AfD93
- Linke60
- FDP53
- CDU/CSU + Grüne331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP338 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.