Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 October 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
16 to 18 Oct 2018
Respondents
1,117
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
  • Grüne20.0%+3.0
  • AfD16.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-3.0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • FDP8.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 28 Sep 2018.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 1,117 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 28 Sep 2018, Grüne gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has Grüne 3.4 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +3.4average 16.6
  • SPD -2.2average 16.2
  • FDP -1.3average 9.3
  • AfD -0.4average 16.4
  • CDU/CSU +0.1average 26.9
  • Linke ±0average 10.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 179 seatsGrüne: 133 seatsAfD: 106 seatsSPD: 93 seatsLinke: 66 seatsFDP: 53 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU179
  • Grüne133
  • AfD106
  • SPD93
  • Linke66
  • FDP53
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD418 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD405 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke338 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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