Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 July 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
9 to 12 Jul 2018
Respondents
1,340
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • SPD18.0%±0
  • AfD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%-2.0
  • Others4.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Jun 2018.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 18.0%. 1,340 people were surveyed from 9 to 12 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Jun 2018, FDP loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has FDP 2.2 points lower and Grüne 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP -2.2average 9.2
  • Grüne +1.7average 12.3
  • Linke +1.2average 9.8
  • AfD -1.1average 16.1
  • CDU/CSU +0.8average 30.2
  • SPD +0.3average 17.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 204 seatsSPD: 118 seatsAfD: 98 seatsGrüne: 92 seatsLinke: 72 seatsFDP: 46 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU204
  • SPD118
  • AfD98
  • Grüne92
  • Linke72
  • FDP46
  • CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne394 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke374 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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