Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 January 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
16 to 18 Jan 2018
Respondents
1,332
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU33.0%+1.0
  • SPD20.0%-3.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • AfD12.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%+1.0
  • FDP8.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Dec 2017.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,332 people were surveyed from 16 to 18 Jan 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Dec 2017, SPD loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jan 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -1.1average 13.1
  • Grüne +1.0average 11.0
  • FDP -1.0average 9.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.2average 32.8
  • Linke +0.2average 9.8
  • SPD ±0average 20.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 219 seatsSPD: 133 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsAfD: 79 seatsLinke: 66 seatsFDP: 53 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU219
  • SPD133
  • Grüne80
  • AfD79
  • Linke66
  • FDP53
  • CDU/CSU + SPD352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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