Single poll

Forsa poll of 15 October 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
8 to 14 Oct 2024
Respondents
2,501
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%±0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%-1.0
  • Grüne10.0%-1.0
  • BSW7.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others12.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 8 Oct 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,501 people were surveyed from 8 to 14 Oct 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 8 Oct 2024, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.1average 32.1
  • Grüne -1.1average 11.1
  • BSW -1.0average 8.0
  • AfD -0.6average 17.6
  • SPD +0.4average 15.6
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 241 seatsAfD: 132 seatsSPD: 125 seatsGrüne: 78 seatsBSW: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU241
  • AfD132
  • SPD125
  • Grüne78
  • BSW54
  • CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne335 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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