Single poll

Forsa poll of 1 October 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
24 to 29 Sep 2024
Respondents
2,501
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • SPD17.0%+2.0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • Grüne10.0%-1.0
  • BSW6.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%
  • Others12.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 24 Sep 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 2,501 people were surveyed from 24 to 29 Sep 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 24 Sep 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 2.3 points lower and SPD 2.2 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -2.3average 8.3
  • SPD +2.2average 14.8
  • CDU/CSU -1.5average 32.5
  • Grüne -1.4average 11.4
  • AfD -0.6average 17.6
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 241 seatsSPD: 132 seatsAfD: 132 seatsGrüne: 78 seatsBSW: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU241
  • SPD132
  • AfD132
  • Grüne78
  • BSW47
  • CDU/CSU + SPD373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne342 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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