Forsa poll of 1 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 29 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 2,501
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
- SPD17.0%+2.0
- AfD17.0%±0
- Grüne10.0%-1.0
- BSW6.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%
- Others12.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 24 Sep 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 2,501 people were surveyed from 24 to 29 Sep 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 24 Sep 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 2.3 points lower and SPD 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -2.3average 8.3
- SPD +2.2average 14.8
- CDU/CSU -1.5average 32.5
- Grüne -1.4average 11.4
- AfD -0.6average 17.6
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU241
- SPD132
- AfD132
- Grüne78
- BSW47
- CDU/CSU + SPD373 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne342 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.