Single poll

Forsa poll of 3 September 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
27 Aug 2024 to 2 Sep 2024
Respondents
2,508
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others11.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Aug 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,508 people were surveyed from 27 Aug 2024 to 2 Sep 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Aug 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.1average 12.1
  • BSW -1.1average 8.1
  • SPD -0.9average 14.9
  • CDU/CSU +0.3average 31.7
  • FDP +0.2average 4.8
  • AfD +0.1average 16.9
  • Linke +0.1average 2.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 234 seatsAfD: 124 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 81 seatsBSW: 51 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU234
  • AfD124
  • SPD103
  • Grüne81
  • BSW51
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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