Single poll

Forsa poll of 30 July 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
23 to 29 Jul 2024
Respondents
2,501
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Others13.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jul 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,501 people were surveyed from 23 to 29 Jul 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.3average 12.3
  • FDP -1.1average 5.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 30.9
  • BSW -0.8average 7.8
  • SPD +0.4average 14.6
  • AfD -0.3average 17.3
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 236 seatsAfD: 134 seatsSPD: 118 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsBSW: 55 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU236
  • AfD134
  • SPD118
  • Grüne87
  • BSW55
  • CDU/CSU + AfD370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne339 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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