Single poll

Forsa poll of 23 July 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
16 to 22 Jul 2024
Respondents
2,504
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • AfD17.0%+1.0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Others11.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jul 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,504 people were surveyed from 16 to 22 Jul 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Grüne 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.6average 12.6
  • Linke +0.9average 3.1
  • BSW -0.6average 7.6
  • SPD -0.5average 14.5
  • AfD +0.1average 16.9
  • FDP -0.1average 5.1
  • CDU/CSU ±0average 31.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 230 seatsAfD: 126 seatsSPD: 104 seatsGrüne: 81 seatsBSW: 52 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU230
  • AfD126
  • SPD104
  • Grüne81
  • BSW52
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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