Forsa poll of 16 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 15 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 2,503
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU32.0%+2.0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%±0
- BSW7.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%
- Others12.0%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 9 Jul 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 2,503 people were surveyed from 9 to 15 Jul 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 9 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Grüne 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.7average 12.7
- CDU/CSU +1.0average 31.0
- AfD -1.0average 17.0
- BSW -0.6average 7.6
- SPD -0.5average 14.5
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU237
- AfD119
- SPD104
- Grüne81
- BSW52
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.