Single poll

Forsa poll of 30 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
23 to 29 Jan 2024
Respondents
2,506
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
  • AfD19.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others8.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jan 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,506 people were surveyed from 23 to 29 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 3.4 points lower and AfD 2.4 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -3.4average 6.4
  • AfD -2.4average 21.4
  • FDP -2.4average 5.4
  • CDU/CSU +1.6average 30.4
  • Linke -0.9average 3.9
  • Grüne +0.8average 13.2
  • SPD +0.3average 14.7
  • Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 252 seatsAfD: 150 seatsSPD: 118 seatsGrüne: 110 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU252
  • AfD150
  • SPD118
  • Grüne110
  • CDU/CSU + AfD402 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne362 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne378 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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