Forsa poll of 30 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 29 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,506
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD19.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Others8.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jan 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,506 people were surveyed from 23 to 29 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 23 Jan 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 3.4 points lower and AfD 2.4 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -3.4average 6.4
- AfD -2.4average 21.4
- FDP -2.4average 5.4
- CDU/CSU +1.6average 30.4
- Linke -0.9average 3.9
- Grüne +0.8average 13.2
- SPD +0.3average 14.7
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU252
- AfD150
- SPD118
- Grüne110
- CDU/CSU + AfD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne378 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.