Single poll

Forsa poll of 23 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
16 to 22 Jan 2024
Respondents
2,503
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%-2.0
  • SPD14.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%
  • Others7.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jan 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 2,503 people were surveyed from 16 to 22 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jan 2024, AfD loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 2.5 points lower and AfD 2.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -2.5average 5.5
  • AfD -2.1average 22.1
  • FDP -1.1average 5.1
  • Grüne +0.8average 13.2
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 31.5
  • SPD -0.2average 14.2
  • Linke +0.2average 3.8
  • Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 247 seatsAfD: 159 seatsSPD: 112 seatsGrüne: 112 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU247
  • AfD159
  • SPD112
  • Grüne112
  • CDU/CSU + AfD406 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne359 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne383 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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