Forsa poll of 16 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 15 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,504
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD22.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- SPD13.0%-2.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others9.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 9 Jan 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,504 people were surveyed from 9 to 15 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 9 Jan 2024, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.3average 14.3
- FDP -1.1average 5.1
- Grüne +0.9average 13.1
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 31.6
- AfD -0.2average 22.2
- Linke +0.1average 3.9
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU244
- AfD173
- Grüne110
- SPD103
- CDU/CSU + AfD417 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD347 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD386 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.