Single poll

Forsa poll of 9 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
2 to 8 Jan 2024
Respondents
2,502
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
  • AfD22.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%
  • Others8.0%-3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Dec 2023.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,502 people were surveyed from 2 to 8 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.8average 31.8
  • FDP -1.2average 5.2
  • Grüne +0.7average 13.3
  • SPD +0.3average 14.7
  • Linke +0.2average 3.8
  • AfD +0.1average 21.9
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 233 seatsAfD: 171 seatsSPD: 117 seatsGrüne: 109 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU233
  • AfD171
  • SPD117
  • Grüne109
  • CDU/CSU + AfD404 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD350 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.