Forsa poll of 9 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 8 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 2,502
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others8.0%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Dec 2023.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,502 people were surveyed from 2 to 8 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 19 Dec 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.8average 31.8
- FDP -1.2average 5.2
- Grüne +0.7average 13.3
- SPD +0.3average 14.7
- Linke +0.2average 3.8
- AfD +0.1average 21.9
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU233
- AfD171
- SPD117
- Grüne109
- CDU/CSU + AfD404 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne342 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne397 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.