Single poll

Forsa poll of 2 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
26 to 29 Sep 2023
Respondents
2,004
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU28.0%+1.0
  • AfD20.0%-1.0
  • SPD18.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Others11.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 26 Sep 2023.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 26 to 29 Sep 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 26 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has AfD 1.7 points lower and FDP 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -1.7average 21.7
  • FDP -1.5average 6.5
  • SPD +1.1average 16.9
  • CDU/CSU +0.9average 27.1
  • Linke -0.7average 4.7
  • Grüne -0.5average 14.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 208 seatsAfD: 148 seatsSPD: 133 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU208
  • AfD148
  • SPD133
  • Grüne104
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne385 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP349 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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