Single poll

Forsa poll of 4 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
27 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023
Respondents
2,501
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD18.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Others10.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Jun 2023.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,501 people were surveyed from 27 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Jun 2023, FDP loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -0.7average 18.7
  • FDP -0.7average 6.7
  • AfD -0.5average 19.5
  • Grüne +0.4average 14.6
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 27.3
  • Linke +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 189 seatsAfD: 133 seatsSPD: 126 seatsGrüne: 105 seatsFDP: 42 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU189
  • AfD133
  • SPD126
  • Grüne105
  • FDP42
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne420 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP357 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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