Single poll

Forsa poll of 19 January 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
14 to 18 Jan 2019
Respondents
2,503
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU32.0%±0
  • Grüne19.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • AfD12.0%±0
  • FDP9.0%±0
  • Linke8.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 12 Jan 2019.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 2,503 people were surveyed from 14 to 18 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 12 Jan 2019, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CDU/CSU 2.7 points higher and AfD 2.4 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +2.7average 29.3
  • AfD -2.4average 14.4
  • Linke -1.3average 9.3
  • FDP +0.4average 8.6
  • Grüne +0.1average 18.9
  • SPD -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 212 seatsGrüne: 126 seatsSPD: 99 seatsAfD: 80 seatsFDP: 60 seatsLinke: 53 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU212
  • Grüne126
  • SPD99
  • AfD80
  • FDP60
  • Linke53
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD391 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke325 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.