Single poll

Forsa poll of 4 August 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
30 Jul 2018 to 3 Aug 2018
Respondents
2,508
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
  • SPD18.0%±0
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • FDP10.0%+1.0
  • Linke9.0%±0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 28 Jul 2018.

In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 18.0%. 2,508 people were surveyed from 30 Jul 2018 to 3 Aug 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 28 Jul 2018, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has AfD 2.1 points lower and FDP 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Aug 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -2.1average 16.1
  • FDP +1.5average 8.5
  • CDU/CSU +1.1average 29.9
  • Linke -1.0average 10.0
  • Grüne -0.2average 13.2
  • SPD ±0average 18.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 206 seatsSPD: 119 seatsAfD: 93 seatsGrüne: 86 seatsFDP: 66 seatsLinke: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU206
  • SPD119
  • AfD93
  • Grüne86
  • FDP66
  • Linke60
  • CDU/CSU + SPD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne385 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke332 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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