Civey poll of 16 June 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 16 Jun 2023
- Respondents
- 10,031
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU25.0%-3.0
- AfD20.0%+7.0
- SPD19.0%±0
- Grüne16.0%-5.0
- FDP7.0%±0
- Linke5.0%+1.0
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Dec 2022.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 10,031 people were surveyed from 9 to 16 Jun 2023, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Dec 2022, AfD gains 7.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has CDU/CSU 3.4 points lower and Grüne 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jun 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.4average 28.4
- Grüne +1.7average 14.3
- AfD +1.5average 18.5
- Linke +0.2average 4.8
- SPD -0.1average 19.1
- FDP -0.1average 7.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU171
- AfD137
- SPD130
- Grüne110
- FDP48
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD438 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne418 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne411 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.