Single poll

Civey poll of 14 July 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
7 to 14 Jul 2021
Respondents
10,110
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU28.0%-2.0
  • Grüne20.0%-1.0
  • SPD19.0%+1.0
  • FDP11.0%±0
  • AfD10.0%+1.0
  • Linke6.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Jul 2021.

In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 10,110 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Jul 2021, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 7 Jul 2021, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has SPD 3.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jul 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +3.6average 15.4
  • Linke -1.3average 7.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.8average 28.8
  • FDP -0.3average 11.3
  • Grüne +0.2average 19.8
  • AfD -0.2average 10.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 188 seatsGrüne: 134 seatsSPD: 127 seatsFDP: 74 seatsAfD: 67 seatsLinke: 40 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU188
  • Grüne134
  • SPD127
  • FDP74
  • AfD67
  • Linke40
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP389 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD382 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + FDP335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD329 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD328 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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