Civey poll of 18 February 2020 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 18 Feb 2020
- Respondents
- 12,157
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.4%+1.7
- Grüne20.5%±0
- AfD14.8%+1.7
- SPD14.0%-0.3
- Linke9.2%-0.4
- FDP6.8%-1.9
- Others5.3%-0.8
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 14 Nov 2019.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.4%, followed by Grüne on 20.5%. 12,157 people were surveyed from 11 to 18 Feb 2020, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 14 Nov 2019, FDP loses 1.9 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.7 points, AfD gains 1.7 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has CDU/CSU 2.2 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Feb 2020. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +2.2average 27.2
- Grüne -1.5average 22.0
- AfD +1.1average 13.7
- SPD -0.6average 14.6
- Linke -0.2average 9.4
- FDP ±0average 6.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU196
- Grüne136
- AfD99
- SPD93
- Linke61
- FDP45
- CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD388 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP334 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.