Civey poll of 1 October 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 30 Sep 2019
- Respondents
- 10,118
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU27.9%+1.2
- Grüne22.6%-2.1
- SPD13.7%-0.1
- AfD13.1%-0.2
- FDP8.5%-0.2
- Linke8.0%-0.2
- Others6.2%+1.6
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 11 Jul 2019.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.9%, followed by Grüne on 22.6%. 10,118 people were surveyed from 23 to 30 Sep 2019, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 11 Jul 2019, Grüne loses 2.1 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.2 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Oct 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.2average 7.3
- AfD -0.9average 14.0
- CDU/CSU +0.7average 27.2
- SPD -0.7average 14.4
- Grüne -0.3average 22.9
- Linke +0.2average 7.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU187
- Grüne152
- SPD92
- AfD88
- FDP57
- Linke54
- CDU/CSU + Grüne339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP332 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.