Single poll

Civey poll of 11 July 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
4 to 11 Jul 2019
Respondents
10,025
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.7%-1.6
  • Grüne24.7%+0.9
  • SPD13.8%-0.1
  • AfD13.3%+2.6
  • FDP8.7%-0.5
  • Linke8.2%+0.6
  • Others4.6%-1.9

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 11 Jun 2019.

In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.7%, followed by Grüne on 24.7%. 10,025 people were surveyed from 4 to 11 Jul 2019, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 11 Jun 2019, AfD gains 2.6 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.6 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP +1.1average 7.6
  • SPD +0.9average 12.9
  • Grüne -0.6average 25.3
  • AfD +0.3average 13.0
  • CDU/CSU +0.2average 26.5
  • Linke +0.1average 8.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 176 seatsGrüne: 163 seatsSPD: 91 seatsAfD: 88 seatsFDP: 58 seatsLinke: 54 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU176
  • Grüne163
  • SPD91
  • AfD88
  • FDP58
  • Linke54
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD355 of 630
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke321 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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