Single poll

Civey poll of 7 February 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
31 Jan 2019 to 7 Feb 2019
Respondents
11,863
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.2%+2.6
  • Grüne17.0%-1.1
  • SPD16.0%+0.5
  • AfD12.9%-3.1
  • FDP9.3%+0.5
  • Linke9.3%+0.7
  • Others4.3%-0.1

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 8 Jan 2019.

In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.2%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 11,863 people were surveyed from 31 Jan 2019 to 7 Feb 2019, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 8 Jan 2019, AfD loses 3.1 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.6 points, Grüne loses 1.1 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Feb 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.8average 18.8
  • SPD +1.0average 15.0
  • AfD -0.7average 13.6
  • CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.6
  • Linke +0.5average 8.8
  • FDP +0.4average 8.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 206 seatsGrüne: 112 seatsSPD: 105 seatsAfD: 85 seatsFDP: 61 seatsLinke: 61 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU206
  • Grüne112
  • SPD105
  • AfD85
  • FDP61
  • Linke61
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD396 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke328 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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