Civey poll of 7 February 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Jan 2019 to 7 Feb 2019
- Respondents
- 11,863
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.2%+2.6
- Grüne17.0%-1.1
- SPD16.0%+0.5
- AfD12.9%-3.1
- FDP9.3%+0.5
- Linke9.3%+0.7
- Others4.3%-0.1
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 8 Jan 2019.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.2%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 11,863 people were surveyed from 31 Jan 2019 to 7 Feb 2019, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 8 Jan 2019, AfD loses 3.1 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.6 points, Grüne loses 1.1 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Grüne 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Feb 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.8average 18.8
- SPD +1.0average 15.0
- AfD -0.7average 13.6
- CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.6
- Linke +0.5average 8.8
- FDP +0.4average 8.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU206
- Grüne112
- SPD105
- AfD85
- FDP61
- Linke61
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD396 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.