Civey poll of 8 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 8 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 11,881
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.6%+2.1
- Grüne18.1%-1.8
- AfD16.0%+0.1
- SPD15.5%+0.5
- FDP8.8%-0.7
- Linke8.6%-0.8
- Others4.4%+0.6
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 3 Dec 2018.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.6%, followed by Grüne on 18.1%. 11,881 people were surveyed from 1 to 8 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 3 Dec 2018, CDU/CSU gains 2.1 points, Grüne loses 1.8 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 2.0 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.0average 14.0
- CDU/CSU -1.5average 30.1
- Grüne -0.7average 18.8
- Linke -0.5average 9.1
- FDP +0.4average 8.4
- SPD +0.3average 15.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU189
- Grüne119
- AfD105
- SPD102
- FDP58
- Linke57
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD413 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD410 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD396 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.