Single poll

Civey poll of 3 December 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
DER SPIEGEL
Fieldwork period
24 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018
Respondents
10,041
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.5%-2.1
  • Grüne19.9%+0.5
  • AfD15.9%+2.9
  • SPD15.0%-0.4
  • FDP9.5%-0.1
  • Linke9.4%+0.1
  • Others3.8%-0.9

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Nov 2018.

In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by Grüne on 19.9%. 10,041 people were surveyed from 24 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Nov 2018, AfD gains 2.9 points, CDU/CSU loses 2.1 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.1average 14.8
  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 27.5
  • FDP +0.5average 9.0
  • Grüne -0.4average 20.3
  • SPD +0.4average 14.6
  • Linke +0.3average 9.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 174 seatsGrüne: 130 seatsAfD: 104 seatsSPD: 98 seatsFDP: 62 seatsLinke: 62 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU174
  • Grüne130
  • AfD104
  • SPD98
  • FDP62
  • Linke62
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD408 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD402 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD376 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP334 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke334 of 630
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD332 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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