Civey poll of 3 December 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018
- Respondents
- 10,041
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%-2.1
- Grüne19.9%+0.5
- AfD15.9%+2.9
- SPD15.0%-0.4
- FDP9.5%-0.1
- Linke9.4%+0.1
- Others3.8%-0.9
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Nov 2018.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by Grüne on 19.9%. 10,041 people were surveyed from 24 Nov 2018 to 3 Dec 2018, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Nov 2018, AfD gains 2.9 points, CDU/CSU loses 2.1 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.1average 14.8
- CDU/CSU -1.0average 27.5
- FDP +0.5average 9.0
- Grüne -0.4average 20.3
- SPD +0.4average 14.6
- Linke +0.3average 9.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU174
- Grüne130
- AfD104
- SPD98
- FDP62
- Linke62
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD408 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD376 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke334 of 630
- Grüne + AfD + SPD332 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.