Civey poll of 5 November 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Oct 2018 to 5 Nov 2018
- Respondents
- 10,005
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU28.6%+1.9
- Grüne19.4%+3.7
- SPD15.4%-1.4
- AfD13.0%-3.8
- FDP9.6%+1.0
- Linke9.3%-1.1
- Others4.7%-0.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 1 Oct 2018.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.6%, followed by Grüne on 19.4%. 10,005 people were surveyed from 29 Oct 2018 to 5 Nov 2018, method Online, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 1 Oct 2018, AfD loses 3.8 points, Grüne gains 3.7 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.9 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 2.9 points lower and CDU/CSU 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Nov 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.9average 15.9
- CDU/CSU +2.2average 26.4
- Grüne +0.9average 18.5
- Linke -0.6average 9.9
- SPD +0.5average 14.9
- FDP +0.3average 9.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU189
- Grüne128
- SPD102
- AfD86
- FDP63
- Linke62
- CDU/CSU + Grüne317 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke337 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD316 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.