Civey poll of 1 October 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Sep 2018 to 1 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 11,904
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU26.7%-2.3
- SPD16.8%-1.0
- AfD16.8%+1.5
- Grüne15.7%+1.1
- Linke10.4%+0.7
- FDP8.6%+0.1
- Others5.0%-0.1
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 17 Sep 2018.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.7%, followed by SPD on 16.8%. 11,904 people were surveyed from 24 Sep 2018 to 1 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 17 Sep 2018, CDU/CSU loses 2.3 points, AfD gains 1.5 points, Grüne gains 1.1 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 27.8
- Grüne +0.7average 15.0
- FDP -0.5average 9.1
- AfD -0.1average 16.9
- Linke +0.1average 10.3
- SPD ±0average 16.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU177
- SPD112
- AfD111
- Grüne104
- Linke69
- FDP57
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne393 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne392 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP338 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne327 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.