Civey poll of 9 January 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- DER SPIEGEL
- Fieldwork period
- 11 Dec 2017 to 8 Jan 2018
- Respondents
- 11,880
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU31.1%-0.4
- SPD19.3%-1.1
- AfD14.5%+3.2
- Grüne11.1%+0.1
- Linke9.9%+0.7
- FDP9.3%-2.6
- Others4.8%+0.1
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Dec 2017.
In this poll Civey has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.1%, followed by SPD on 19.3%. 11,880 people were surveyed from 11 Dec 2017 to 8 Jan 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by DER SPIEGEL.
Compared with the previous Civey poll of 5 Dec 2017, AfD gains 3.2 points, FDP loses 2.6 points, SPD loses 1.1 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has AfD 2.2 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jan 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.2average 12.3
- CDU/CSU -1.7average 32.8
- SPD -1.4average 20.7
- Linke +0.4average 9.5
- FDP +0.2average 9.1
- Grüne -0.1average 11.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU206
- SPD128
- AfD96
- Grüne73
- Linke65
- FDP62
- CDU/CSU + SPD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.