Single poll

Allensbach poll of 23 July 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
3 to 16 Jul 2026
Respondents
1,040
Method
Persönlich
  • AfD26.5%-1.5
  • CDU/CSU24.0%±0
  • SPD13.0%+0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • FDP5.5%±0
  • Others8.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 24 Jun 2026.

In this poll Allensbach has AfD ahead on 26.5%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,040 people were surveyed from 3 to 16 Jul 2026, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 24 Jun 2026, AfD loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 2.2 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +2.2average 21.8
  • Linke -1.4average 11.4
  • FDP +1.2average 4.3
  • Grüne -1.1average 14.1
  • AfD -0.9average 27.4
  • SPD +0.6average 12.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 182 seatsCDU/CSU: 164 seatsSPD: 89 seatsGrüne: 89 seatsLinke: 68 seatsFDP: 38 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD182
  • CDU/CSU164
  • SPD89
  • Grüne89
  • Linke68
  • FDP38
  • AfD + CDU/CSU346 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne342 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke339 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke321 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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