Single poll

Allensbach poll of 23 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
7 to 19 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,015
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU/CSU34.0%-2.0
  • AfD20.0%+2.0
  • SPD17.0%+1.0
  • Grüne13.5%+1.5
  • BSW5.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Others6.5%-1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Dec 2024.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,015 people were surveyed from 7 to 19 Jan 2025, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Dec 2024, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 3.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +3.8average 30.2
  • SPD +0.8average 16.2
  • AfD +0.4average 19.6
  • Grüne -0.4average 13.9
  • BSW -0.1average 5.1
  • FDP -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 239 seatsAfD: 141 seatsSPD: 120 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsBSW: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU239
  • AfD141
  • SPD120
  • Grüne95
  • BSW35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne334 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne356 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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