Allensbach poll of 18 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Sep 2024 to 11 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,041
- Method
- Persönlich
- CDU/CSU36.0%+0.5
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Grüne10.5%+0.5
- BSW9.0%±0
- FDP4.5%+0.5
- Others9.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 19 Sep 2024.
In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,041 people were surveyed from 28 Sep 2024 to 11 Oct 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 19 Sep 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 4.4 points higher and AfD 1.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +4.4average 31.6
- AfD -1.7average 17.7
- BSW +1.2average 7.8
- SPD -0.6average 15.6
- FDP +0.6average 3.9
- Grüne -0.5average 11.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU262
- AfD117
- SPD109
- Grüne76
- BSW66
- CDU/CSU + AfD379 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD371 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.