Single poll

Allensbach poll of 19 September 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
29 Aug 2024 to 11 Sep 2024
Respondents
1,017
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU/CSU35.5%+1.5
  • AfD17.0%+1.0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne10.0%-1.5
  • BSW9.0%+2.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Others8.5%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Aug 2024.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 35.5%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,017 people were surveyed from 29 Aug 2024 to 11 Sep 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Aug 2024, BSW gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.5 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 3.4 points higher and SPD 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +3.4average 32.1
  • SPD +1.6average 14.4
  • Grüne -1.4average 11.4
  • BSW +1.0average 8.0
  • AfD -0.6average 17.6
  • FDP -0.2average 4.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 256 seatsAfD: 122 seatsSPD: 115 seatsGrüne: 72 seatsBSW: 65 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU256
  • AfD122
  • SPD115
  • Grüne72
  • BSW65
  • CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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