Single poll

Allensbach poll of 25 July 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
5 to 19 Jul 2024
Respondents
1,003
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU/CSU32.0%±0
  • AfD17.0%+2.0
  • SPD16.5%+0.5
  • Grüne11.5%-1.5
  • BSW8.0%+1.0
  • FDP6.0%±0
  • Others9.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Jun 2024.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 5 to 19 Jul 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Jun 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has SPD 2.2 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.2average 14.3
  • CDU/CSU +1.1average 30.9
  • FDP +1.0average 5.0
  • Grüne -0.8average 12.3
  • BSW +0.4average 7.6
  • AfD -0.1average 17.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 221 seatsAfD: 118 seatsSPD: 114 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsBSW: 55 seatsFDP: 42 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU221
  • AfD118
  • SPD114
  • Grüne80
  • BSW55
  • FDP42
  • CDU/CSU + AfD339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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