Single poll

Allensbach poll of 21 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
1 to 14 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,027
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU/CSU34.0%+2.0
  • AfD16.0%-2.0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Feb 2024.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,027 people were surveyed from 1 to 14 Mar 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 4.2 points higher and AfD 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +4.2average 29.8
  • AfD -1.9average 17.9
  • BSW +1.2average 5.8
  • SPD -1.1average 16.1
  • FDP +0.6average 4.4
  • Grüne +0.2average 13.8
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 235 seatsAfD: 111 seatsSPD: 104 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsBSW: 48 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU235
  • AfD111
  • SPD104
  • Grüne97
  • BSW48
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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