Allensbach poll of 21 March 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 14 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 1,027
- Method
- Persönlich
- CDU/CSU34.0%+2.0
- AfD16.0%-2.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others6.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Feb 2024.
In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,027 people were surveyed from 1 to 14 Mar 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 22 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has CDU/CSU 4.2 points higher and AfD 1.9 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +4.2average 29.8
- AfD -1.9average 17.9
- BSW +1.2average 5.8
- SPD -1.1average 16.1
- FDP +0.6average 4.4
- Grüne +0.2average 13.8
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU235
- AfD111
- SPD104
- Grüne97
- BSW48
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.