Allensbach poll of 25 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 18 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,018
- Method
- Persönlich
- CDU/CSU34.0%±0
- AfD19.5%+1.5
- SPD15.0%-2.0
- Grüne13.5%-1.5
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke4.0%+0.5
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 21 Dec 2023.
In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 1,018 people were surveyed from 5 to 18 Jan 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 21 Dec 2023, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.5 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has AfD 3.1 points lower and CDU/CSU 2.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -3.1average 22.6
- CDU/CSU +2.8average 31.2
- SPD +1.3average 13.7
- FDP +1.1average 4.9
- Grüne +0.4average 13.1
- Linke +0.1average 3.9
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU243
- AfD140
- SPD107
- Grüne97
- FDP43
- CDU/CSU + AfD383 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne340 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.