Single poll

Allensbach poll of 25 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
5 to 18 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,018
Method
Persönlich
  • CDU/CSU34.0%±0
  • AfD19.5%+1.5
  • SPD15.0%-2.0
  • Grüne13.5%-1.5
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.0%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 21 Dec 2023.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 1,018 people were surveyed from 5 to 18 Jan 2024, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 21 Dec 2023, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.5 points, Grüne loses 1.5 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has AfD 3.1 points lower and CDU/CSU 2.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -3.1average 22.6
  • CDU/CSU +2.8average 31.2
  • SPD +1.3average 13.7
  • FDP +1.1average 4.9
  • Grüne +0.4average 13.1
  • Linke +0.1average 3.9
  • Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 243 seatsAfD: 140 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsFDP: 43 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU243
  • AfD140
  • SPD107
  • Grüne97
  • FDP43
  • CDU/CSU + AfD383 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD350 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.