Allensbach poll of 16 October 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Sep 2019 to 10 Oct 2019
- Respondents
- 1,238
- Method
- Persönlich
- CDU/CSU29.5%+0.5
- Grüne23.5%+1.5
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- AfD13.0%-1.0
- Linke7.0%-1.0
- FDP6.5%-0.5
- Others4.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 17 Sep 2019.
In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by Grüne on 23.5%. 1,238 people were surveyed from 27 Sep 2019 to 10 Oct 2019, method Persönlich, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 17 Sep 2019, Grüne gains 1.5 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has SPD 2.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 2.1 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +2.4average 13.6
- CDU/CSU +2.1average 27.4
- AfD -1.1average 14.1
- FDP -1.0average 7.5
- Linke -0.8average 7.8
- Grüne +0.6average 22.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU195
- Grüne155
- SPD105
- AfD86
- Linke46
- FDP43
- CDU/CSU + Grüne350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke346 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke327 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.