Single poll

Allensbach poll of 17 July 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Fieldwork period
1 to 12 Jul 2018
Respondents
1,295
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU30.5%-2.5
  • SPD20.0%-1.0
  • AfD15.0%+2.0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • FDP9.5%±0
  • Linke9.0%-0.5
  • Others4.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Jun 2018.

In this poll Allensbach has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by SPD on 20.0%. 1,295 people were surveyed from 1 to 12 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Allensbach poll of 20 Jun 2018, CDU/CSU loses 2.5 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Allensbach has SPD 2.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.5average 17.5
  • AfD -1.2average 16.2
  • Linke -1.0average 10.0
  • Grüne -0.8average 12.8
  • FDP +0.7average 8.8
  • CDU/CSU +0.4average 30.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 200 seatsSPD: 131 seatsAfD: 99 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsFDP: 62 seatsLinke: 59 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU200
  • SPD131
  • AfD99
  • Grüne79
  • FDP62
  • Linke59
  • CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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