INSA poll of 23 July 2026 for the Berlin state election
- Commissioned by
- NIUS
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 21 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD19.0%+1.0
- Linke18.0%+3.0
- CDU18.0%-2.0
- Grüne16.0%+1.0
- SPD13.0%-3.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 May 2026.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 19.0%, followed by Linke on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 14 to 21 Jul 2026, method Online, commissioned by NIUS.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 15 May 2026, Linke gains 3.0 points, SPD loses 3.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.5 points higher and Linke 2.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.5average 16.5
- Linke -2.5average 20.5
- CDU -1.5average 19.5
- Grüne -1.0average 17.0
- BSW +1.0average 3.0
- SPD +0.5average 12.5
- FDP +0.5average 3.5
Seat projection from this poll
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- AfD29
- Linke28
- CDU28
- Grüne25
- SPD20
- AfD + Linke + CDU85 of 130
- AfD + Linke + Grüne82 of 130
- AfD + CDU + Grüne82 of 130
- Linke + CDU + Grüne81 of 130
- AfD + Linke + SPD77 of 130
- AfD + CDU + SPD77 of 130
- Linke + CDU + SPD76 of 130
- AfD + Grüne + SPD74 of 130
- Linke + Grüne + SPD73 of 130
- CDU + Grüne + SPD73 of 130
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.