INSA poll of 15 May 2026 for the Berlin state election
- Commissioned by
- NIUS
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 8 May 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU20.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- Linke15.0%±0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Apr 2026.
In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 20.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 4 to 8 May 2026, method Online, commissioned by NIUS.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Apr 2026, CDU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.0 points lower and Linke 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.0average 17.0
- Linke -2.0average 17.0
- SPD +1.0average 15.0
- BSW +1.0average 3.0
- CDU +0.5average 19.5
- AfD +0.5average 17.5
- FDP +0.5average 3.5
Seat projection from this poll
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- CDU31
- AfD28
- SPD25
- Grüne23
- Linke23
- CDU + AfD + SPD84 of 130
- CDU + AfD + Grüne82 of 130
- CDU + AfD + Linke82 of 130
- CDU + SPD + Grüne79 of 130
- CDU + SPD + Linke79 of 130
- CDU + Grüne + Linke77 of 130
- AfD + SPD + Grüne76 of 130
- AfD + SPD + Linke76 of 130
- AfD + Grüne + Linke74 of 130
- SPD + Grüne + Linke71 of 130
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.