Single poll

INSA poll of 18 December 2018 for the Berlin state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
10 to 17 Dec 2018
Respondents
1,007
Method
Telefon & Online
  • Grüne21.0%-1.0
  • CDU18.0%+2.0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Linke16.0%-1.0
  • AfD14.0%-1.0
  • FDP8.0%+1.0
  • Others7.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Nov 2018.

In this poll INSA has Grüne ahead on 21.0%, followed by CDU on 18.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 10 to 17 Dec 2018, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Nov 2018, CDU gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.9 points lower and Linke 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.9average 23.9
  • Linke -2.2average 18.2
  • AfD +1.6average 12.4
  • FDP +1.6average 6.4
  • SPD +1.1average 14.9
  • CDU +0.3average 17.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

Grüne: 29 seatsCDU: 25 seatsSPD: 23 seatsLinke: 22 seatsAfD: 20 seatsFDP: 11 seatsMajority from 66130of 130 seats
  • Grüne29
  • CDU25
  • SPD23
  • Linke22
  • AfD20
  • FDP11
  • Grüne + CDU + SPD77 of 130
  • Grüne + CDU + Linke76 of 130
  • Grüne + CDU + AfD74 of 130
  • Grüne + SPD + Linke74 of 130
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD72 of 130
  • Grüne + Linke + AfD71 of 130
  • CDU + SPD + Linke70 of 130
  • CDU + SPD + AfD68 of 130
  • CDU + Linke + AfD67 of 130
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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