Single poll

INSA poll of 17 January 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
12 to 16 Jan 2026
Respondents
1,202
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD26.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU25.0%+0.5
  • SPD14.0%-0.5
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jan 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 25.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 12 to 16 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jan 2026, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +0.8average 10.2
  • BSW +0.7average 3.3
  • AfD +0.4average 25.6
  • SPD -0.4average 14.4
  • Grüne -0.3average 12.3
  • FDP +0.3average 3.7
  • CDU/CSU -0.2average 25.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 186 seatsCDU/CSU: 179 seatsSPD: 100 seatsGrüne: 86 seatsLinke: 79 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD186
  • CDU/CSU179
  • SPD100
  • Grüne86
  • Linke79
  • AfD + CDU/CSU365 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke358 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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