Single poll

INSA poll of 10 September 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
6 to 9 Sep 2024
Respondents
2,010
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU32.5%+1.5
  • AfD19.5%+0.5
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • Grüne10.0%±0
  • BSW10.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke2.5%-0.5
  • Others7.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Sep 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.5%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 6 to 9 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 7 Sep 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.5 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.5 points higher and BSW 2.4 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.5average 17.0
  • BSW +2.4average 7.6
  • Grüne -1.7average 11.7
  • SPD -0.8average 14.8
  • Linke -0.6average 3.1
  • CDU/CSU +0.4average 32.1
  • FDP -0.4average 4.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 238 seatsAfD: 143 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 73 seatsBSW: 73 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU238
  • AfD143
  • SPD103
  • Grüne73
  • BSW73
  • CDU/CSU + AfD381 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW384 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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